Microclimatic buffering of plant responses to macroclimate warming in temperate forests.

WP4: Demographic modelling

The goal of WP4 is to achieve an integration of species' distributional changes and biodiversity impacts of climate change for temperate forests by integrating the observed microclimatic effects of temperature and light on understorey plants. Using innovative demographic distribution models by means of integral projection models (IPMs), an in-depth climate-change impact assessment for temperate forest understorey biodiversity can be made. The data gathered in WP1-3 will allow us to accurately predict microclimates under a range of environmental conditions and forest management regimes occurring in temperate forests throughout Europe. Both microclimatic effects on temperature, light and vital rates of plants, collected along the latitudinal gradient in the observatory and experiments across much of the distribution ranges of the understorey plants in WP1-3, will be incorporated in the models.